The Three Stages of Technology

Robert Heinlein wrote a juvenile science fiction novel in 1952 called "The Rolling Stones" where he described the three stages of technology. The first stage is a crude, simple and unsatisfactory gadget. He used an ox cart and a rowboat as examples. The second stage is an extremely complicated gadget or group of gadgets that get much better performance, but are difficult to design, build and maintain. As an example of the second stage he used the automobile. That was in 1952 and I would be inclined to characterize our current automobiles as an even better example of second stage technology. The Space Shuttle is also an excellent example of second stage technology.

The third stage of technology is a simple efficient design. His example was the atomic powered rocket ship of the novel. The power plant was 100% efficient and had no moving parts.

I bring this up because there are signs that nuclear power is starting to move from the second stage to the third stage.

I have been reading the marketing literature for the Westinghouse AP1000 reactor design. They brag about how unprecedented levels of safety have been achieved though the use of simple passive safety systems instead of layers of complicated active systems. The NRC apparently agrees. Their assessment rates the AP1000 over 80 times safer than current systems.

Westinghouse goes into great detail about many less components are used in the AP1000:

• 50% fewer safety-related valves
• 80% less safety-related piping
• 85% less control cable
• 35% fewer pumps

The reactor is designed to be built in modules that can brought to the construction site by rail and assembled on site. This will reduce cost and improve quality.

Note that the Chinese have plans to have 100 AP1000 reactors operating or under construction by the year 2020. The Republican energy plan is to build 100 reactors by 2030.

I'm not a shill for Westinghouse. The AP1000 is considered a Generation III+ design. There are Generation IV reactors which will be much better. The difference is that the AP1000 has already been approved by the NRC. The AP1000 isn't the best reactor we can built. It is the best reactor we can build now.

The Chinese are developing Pebble Bed Modular Reactors (PBMR). These also break new ground in passive safety design. They are walk-away safe. If the reactor has a total loss of coolant, the pebbles expand, the reaction weakens and finally shuts down with no damage. This has actually been tested.

This design can also be adapted to use Thorium for fuel. I don't want to go into the details now, but Thorium has a lot of advantages over Uranium as a fuel.

Lastly I would like to mention SSTAR, a small, sealed, transportable, autonomous reactor program at Lawerence Livermore. This design can be up to 500 tons and produce up to 100MWe. An SSTAR is prefueled and can be shipped by rail, barge or even a large truck to the operating site. The reactor is designed to operate from 20 to 30 years on the initial fuel load and when the fuel is consumed the reactor is replaced and sent back for recycling.

Since there are no fuel rods being shipped to refuel the reactor, that means there are no fuel rods to be diverted into nuclear weapons programs, which reduces the proliferation risks. Since the reactor is plug and play, it doesn't need a lot of infrastructure to get it up and running, which makes it ideal for third world countries. 1.6 billion people in the world don't have access to electricity and STAR type reactors would answer a crying need for electricity, desalination and hydrogen production.

I don't think we are going to repairing nuclear reactors in our backyard anytime soon, but the future for simple mass produced reactors is very hopeful.

References:

The Rolling Stones by Robert Heinlein 1952. Chapter 4: Aspects of Domestic Engineering

Wikipedia Article on Westinghouse AP1000
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AP1000

Article on SSTAR
https://www.llnl.gov/str/JulAug04/Smith.html

Small nuclear power reactors
http://www.eoearth.org/article/Small_nuclear_power_reactors

American Energy Act
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/billtext.xpd?bill=h110-6566

Energy from Thorium
http://thoriumenergy.blogspot.com/